The Stockdale Paradox applied to movements
In the book, Good to Great Jim Collins coins the term ‘The Stockade Paradox’. He is referencing a story he shares about Admiral Jim Stockdale, a prisoner of war from the Vietnam era. Needless to say, Stockdale survived intensely harsh conditions, being imprisoned for eight years and being tortured over 20 times. Not only did he survive, but he also gave the other POWs hope and purpose in their plight. He continued to be a leader among leaders in very difficult circumstances.
The paradox is this:
On one hand, Stockdale never doubted that he would eventually get out of his horrific circumstances.
On the other hand, he never denied or ignored the brutal facts of those current circumstances. (Yes, Collins uses the term “the brutal facts” throughout the chapter. The perfect phrase for what we’re talking about.)
Stockdale wasn’t an optimist. In fact, at one point Collins shares Stockdale’s understanding of why optimists rarely made it out of POW camps alive. You’ll have to read chapter 4 of Good to Great yourself to find it.
No, Stockdale wasn’t an optimist, he was a realist with a long-term view.
In pursuing movements of disciples and churches, we need to hold two things as truth:
One, the brutal facts of lostness are… brutal. (That’s WHY they are the brutal facts).
But at the same time… Two, we need to never doubt that Jesus equipped his church to see victory in the task he gave us. There will be an end of days, where all people from all nations will have heard the Gospel.
This isn’t a pie-in-the-sky attitude or a lazy approach to ministry. Instead, it is a realistic outlook and then rugged determination to put your hand to the plow and labor at kingdom work, faithfully doing what God calls you to until you see breakthrough or he releases you from that call. (…until there is #NoPlaceLeft).
Maybe you and your team need to recenter on how brutal the facts of lostness are around you. I know I often do. Even in places with a large presence of believers, there are millions of people living far from God and facing a Christless eternity. Seeking the actual data of lostness for your area is a sobering thing, but without it, we can easily lose sight of reality.*
In addition to the lostness right around you, we can’t escape the fact that there are not just millions, but billions of people who will not hear the name of Jesus (let alone the full Gospel message) if there is not specific and direct action taken to bring it to them. There are many places to find this information, but a short read-through of the top unreached people groups should sober us. There are people groups numbering in the millions that have no known followers of Jesus. That’s a brutal reality. Correction: That’s a brutal fact.
So we need to be realists about the brutal facts of lostness.
But on the other hand… (actually, it’s not the other hand… it’s in addition to the reality of lostness), we also need to be realists about the Biblical promises. Jesus promised that the Gospel of the kingdom would be preached to all nations. We see in beautiful detail that every nation, tribe, and tongue will praise God together at the end of days.
No matter how brutal our current reality is, God is working in the world today and he’s working to ultimately bring about the promises he made. He asks us to join him in that work.
The difference between most first-world Christians and a prisoner of war is that most of us don’t ever think about either reality. A POW can’t dodge his current plight. But without prodding, we might never consider the brutal facts of lostness around us and around the globe. And we may never remind ourselves that God is about a great redemptive work for all of humanity and we have a role to play in it.
So here’s to a heavy dose of realism. The facts of lostness are brutal. The Gospel will be shared with every nation to the point that every people group will be worshipping the Lord for all eternity. Both realities are true.
We’ll give Admiral Jim Stockdale himself the last word:
“This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end - which you can never afford to lose - with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be." (Good to Great, Collins, page 85)
